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Monday, January 26, 2015

S3A CHAT UPDATE, 26 JAN

S3A : 

  • Chinese moved deadline to Wednesday. Let's hope it's the last move/delay

  • Fyi.........FYI.........THE DIRIVITIVES HAVE BEEN BOUGHT OUT QUIETLY AND SECRETIVELY BY YOU KNOW........THEY........THEY DID BUY OUT THE DIRIVITIVES SO THEE IS NO WORRIES, RUN RUN RUSH THE BANKS RON BURGANDY GET YOUR INFO STRAIGHT....GRIN, THE REPUBLICS COMING.........TIMBER


  • It's January 27th in Iraq.....Our window cometh' westward. But I am giving room for a grace period of three (3) days..up to the time line of Friday 30th. It's our time , It' our week it's DONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! TIMBER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


    • Yes, I like TIMBERDAYS



  • I have a question on the dong. Tony & DC have been saying "what is on the screen is .47 to 1.05"; said with wiggle room that the rate could change when it goes live. But, we've been hearing for a long time rates over $2. Does anyone have any idea which range might be the one we'll see? Or is this some play to get us to shift back to Dinar for US oil Credits and away from the dong?


    • haven't seen an "over $2" rate in a long time. Tony said this morning .47 to 1.05, with a contract rate of over $2.
      IF the dong were to reinstate, as I believe it should do at this point (having been devalued by the USGov during the "war" years), it would show up at $2.21 (even without adjusting for inflation). So, in my thinking there IS a way for it to show up higher. But that's just my opinion. that being, said, I'd be really happy with $1+


    • Wont the dong be revalued the same as Kuwait, return to its original value at the point prior to devaluation (say 1953/1954, before the fall of Saigon) and hopefully plus interest?


    • Logic would say that, since you cannot revalue a currency without a reinstatement to prior value ..... we just won't know until this happens. 

  • I am pretty sure that rate of  $2.21 is  Dong to $1 USD so that actually would be $.452 per Dong 


  • YOUR RATE OF  $2.21 SHOULD READ 2.21 AS A RATE AND TAKE THE CONFUSION OUT...SO $1.00 DIVIDED BY RATE OF 2.21= .452 CENTS PER DONG!
    AMAZING


  • yes your right Jackal ,  but is still only 45 cents per dong

  • I concur, but don't say the rate as...$2.21...that's too confusing for people...it is 2.21


  • Yes 


  • On December 18, 1971, after the U.S. dollar devaluation, the official exchange rate of the dong was 2.71 per 1 dollar.


  • On May 3, 1978, a uniform dong was introduced at an exchange rate of 2.17 per 1 dollar...
    They kept the peg pretty close all through that period.


  • which means each Dong=.369 cents


  • 46 cents...
    Say you owned 1,000,000 Dong back then...
    It would have been worth $460,000.00 on exchange into $USD

TLAR UPDATE, 26 JAN

1-26-15 Tlar: Article quote: "decided CBI, take the necessary measures to boost liquidity measures in the banking system and the simplification of foreign currency sale in order to facilitate the stability of the market and exchange rate measures."   The CBI just paved the way for the government to implement all their new programs by this move.  Between the 2 million loan from the IMF and the CBI backing the government by financing the debt, the government is now free to move.

The CBI announced that they have 1.5 times in reserves for all the dinar out covering every dinar 1.5 times.  That is much more than they need to back their currency especially circulating currency.  It's obvious to me Keywords is on onboard and trying to help the government achieve a successful transition to a market economy or why do this?  You only have to ask yourself this question.  Would the bank under Shabibi, or Turki loan money or back government instruments prior to this government?  The answer has to be a firm no.  Both stated they would not loan money to the government.
Now with the CBI's backing and support, the Abadi government should have no problem raising the funds necessary to proceed.  IMO keywords is showing he is on board with this move and ready to go to the wall for the Abadi government.  Another good sign IMO we are very close.  One more thought.  Kuwait postponed their payments in 2015 and Egypt just relaxed their debt for oil shares.
Abadi is truly clearing the way for Iraq to come out of fog in 2015 and quickly participate in a successful 2016.   The pass he just made, visiting all the countries he just visited, IMO he was selling oil attempting to gain new markets and increase existing markets, and making sure that those countries were on board to shortly accept the dinar in trade.  It is of benefit to all their trading partners to now accept the dinar, and shortly they will.  Abadi is a very smart guy.

DC, TMAN23 & TLM724 UPDATE, 26 JAN

1-26-15 DC: Everything is still within the window and ready. Iraq is finalizing their checks. The USA is in a wonderful state and it's "let's go." Everybody got back in town and more paper work was signed. Parliament announced via TV they are ready for the economic reforms "like the CBI."

My understanding is there were quite a few meetings yesterday and teleconferences this morning. Those all came back with green light
. This is what we are receiving, but things can change. But my expectation is that it won't.  Rates are still on the cards are 3.58. Still will be in the mid-3's. Everything is beautifully lined up. 


1-26-15 tman23What I have been seeing is 50% cuts...one Ministry went from 450 billion to 1.350...so we have seen as much on an average of 3.2 in cuts...The estimates are 58 billion in oil revenue for 2015 at 4 million barrels per day...They have been playing with the numbers but past numbers figured out to balance the budget would require around 3.40 rate... REMEMBER...they get paid in petro dollars so the deficit can be multiplied by the rate for purchasing power.


1-26-15 tlm724: Article quote: "Mr. Minister of Planning Dr Salman Jumaili ministry announced the completion of an economic plan for the years 2015-2018 in light of the government program" tells us:

1. they know what they have to do

2. they know how to do it and

3. they know what funds they have to implement it
4. this is the shift to the free market economy

5. this is why there are changes going on at the CBI also.

Abadi developed the plan the MOP followed up and got it done! Amazing progress, I am very excited! [Finally the timing is looking good for all of us.] I concur.

ENORRSTE UPDATE, 26 JAN

1-26-15 Enorrste: Within the next 30 to 60 days we will see the beginning of the rise in the value of the dinar. I don't expect a major announcement, however.  Instead, I believe the street rate will come down to the official rate and then pass it, at which time the CBI will either "ratchet" the official rate on occasion to keep pace with the rise in the street rate value, or, more likely, make an official change in the exchange rate regime to link the street rate and official rate, thereby initiating the float.
After that, some months probably, they will move to Article VIII.  At that point the investment will substantially increase into Iraq, even beyond whatever Abadi is able to get started from last weekend's conference, since Iraq will be playing in the 'big boy" ballpark under the same rules as the rest of the world.  I am quite optimistic, in case you did not notice!